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Metal Market Report September 2025 - Week 3 Edition

September 2025 - Week 3 Edition

The Case for $7,000 Gold in 2026 – and $10,000 By 2030

Some new trends, if continued, could result in a doubling of gold prices to $7,000 next year and a potential tripling to $10,000 or more within five years. These trends are led by institutional demand – central banks trading their eroding paper dollars for gold and private demand through both gold ETFs and the physical metal.

First, and most importantly, if global central banks switch just 2% of their foreign bank reserves from dollars to gold, the resulting decline in the dollar and rise in gold could push prices up to $7,000 in 12 to 16 months. For evidence, consider this: At the start of 2022, gold was trading around $1,700 per ounce. Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine and central bank gold buying doubled to 1,000 or more metric tons per year each since 2022. That contributed to the price of gold increasing more than double in the past 3.5 years.

Gold really began to soar two years ago, after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Gold traded at a low of $1,810 the day before that attack, so gold has now doubled in the past two years. In that span, gold accumulation by central banks caused gold to surpass the euro as the second-largest asset held by central banks. The U.S. Dollar is still number one on the list. So far, most of the central bank buying has been by “developing” (Third World) nations trying to match the massive gold holdings in the U.S. and Western Europe but what if all levels of global governments – from the poorest to the richest – began switching from euros, yen and dollars into gold?

The top five central banks, in terms of foreign reserve holdings, are China, Japan, Switzerland, India and Russia. Combined, they have $7.35 trillion in reserves but with under $800 billion (11% of the total) in gold. If they doubled their gold content, that could supercharge gold prices. There are nearly 200 central banks worldwide and most of them are tired of holding their weak dollars, yen and euros, while gold remains the only commodity (a non-paper investment) allowed in foreign reserves. Because of soaring global debt, no currency is strong or safe. In the U.S. and Europe, deficits are soaring. Our unfunded liabilities in both Medicare and Social Security, plus $2 trillion in annual deficits, make the U.S. dollar a losing gamble.

In fact, central bank holdings of U.S. Dollars and U.S. Treasury debt are down from 70% of all global reserves in the early 2000s to under 58% today. China’s central bank has sold almost half of its dollar hoard for gold. China held $1.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt in 2013 but they have systematically sold off $544 billion of those dollars, to hold only $756.3 billion as of May 2025. They mostly accumulated gold, not other currencies. Japan and Switzerland are also unloading their U.S. Dollars in favor of gold. 

If our relationships with countries like China, Russia and India worsen, they could accelerate their sales of U.S. Treasury assets and buying of gold.

The world’s central banks are effectively establishing a “new gold standard” by choosing gold over paper.

Private gold demand also helps as U.S. investors are also creating a new gold standard by pouring major portions of their portfolios into physical gold bullion, gold IRAs and gold ETFs. After four years of net liquidation of gold-backed ETFs by Americans in the Biden years, 2021 to 2024, U.S. investors have surged into gold ETFs this year.

Globally, there was $43.6 billion in net new gold ETF demand in the first eight months of 2025, through August 31st, just short of the $49.5 billion record set in 2020. That number is well within reach by year’s end.

So, with central banks and Wall Street investors exchanging weak dollars for strong gold, the “sky is the limit” for realistic gold price projections and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see $7,000 gold in 2026.

Rising gold prices have resulted in the melting of lower-grade common date gold coins. Even Mint State 64 and below grade $20 Saint Gaudens have been melted. Long-term, I expect this to create a shortage of collectible gold coins in future years. This is likely to result in premium increases for those “survivors.” I would recommend stretching your budget for better date and grade gold coins, as they may become even harder to find in future years.

 

Gold Keeps Soaring as investors are in an “accumulation” mode, not selling on any temporary price dips. In the first eight trading days of September, gold is up 5.75% and nearing $3,700 per ounce on the futures market. Silver is up 4.64% in the same time frame and platinum is up 2%, as the industrial-based precious metals may be slowing down from their torrid gains through August. For the year, however, both platinum and silver have still outpaced gold, with all three metals far above the stock market gains so far.

If the Fed raises rates by 0.5% on Wednesday, September 17, we may see a big rally in gold and stocks but if we see even a 0.25% rate cut, both gold and stocks could stage a temporary price correction. No rate cuts would signal that the Fed is short-sighted and political, reviving calls for Chairman Jerome Powell to resign.

 

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