November 2025 - Week 2 Edition
Gold and Silver Recover Strongly This Week
On Monday, November 10th, gold shot up $112 (+3%) and silver rose $2.15 (+4.5%) per ounce, in a sudden one-day surge.
What happened on Monday to influence precious metals so powerfully? Could it be rumors that the government shutdown was almost over? That would imply that the world is a more dangerous place with Congress in session and all bureaucrats at work rather than in a world of an extended shutdown. Maybe, there is a bit more peace in the world, with a potential military operation inside Venezuela apparently “off the table,” along with less conflict in the Middle East. Oddly enough, consumer sentiment has fallen to a 3.5-year low as we approach the holiday shopping season but that shouldn’t have caused gold and silver prices to rise so strongly. Perhaps the expectation of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is part of the motivation or perhaps more people are finally seeing the value of having gold and silver as an inflationary and investment hedge in their portfolios. Of the more than $18 trillion invested in IRAs, only a relative handful of them contain gold or silver.
By our study of the history of gold, sovereign currencies and investor sentiment, I’d say the main reason for the recent gain in gold and silver is what’s known as “debasement trade,” a rising tide of many large institutions finally realizing gold (not bitcoin or paper currencies) can provide the best long-term store of value in an age of rising deficits, currency debasement and chronic inflation. As UBS, a leading Swiss bank, put it, “Rising government debt around the world has increased investor concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for inflation or currency depreciation,” and gold is “viewed as a store of value that protects against these risks.”
A key indication that this trend will continue is the fact that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has met upside resistance at the 100 level (it peaked at 110 last January), so the dollar is down almost 10% so far this year, as we predicted in January.
Some Banks See $5,000 Gold in 2026, Others Settle for $4,200 but We See Higher Potential
Analysts at Germany’s Commerzbank and Switzerland’s UBS are now projecting $4,200 gold in 2026, given “ongoing political uncertainty and weak economic activity.” They appear to be a little late to the game, as usual, since gold again surpassed $4,200 on Wednesday. These and some other large European banks have a habit of “chasing” the price of gold up (in baby steps, after each rise), afraid to commit to $5,000 or higher prices. This practice has, no doubt, cost those following such bad advice countless amounts of money. Gold has risen over 60% this year and it would take about a third of that gain – another 20% rise – to reach $5,000 gold from here.
As we have said before, some large banks see $5,000 gold next year, even though only one major bank (Germany’s Commerzbank) predicted 2025 gold prices above $3,500 at the start of 2025. As we have repeatedly tried to inform you, many European banks aren’t fans of gold and are repeatedly late to the party when gold moves higher.
As of late October, here are some of the major banks’ projections of gold by year-end 2026:
As you know, we are far bolder, predicting a 2025 year-end gain of 65% to $4,350, followed by the case for another 60% rise next year to $7,000, then possibly to $10,000 by 2029, with silver reaching $70 per ounce and potentially $100-plus.
Happy Veteran’s Day – Especially to the Marines
Monday marked the 250th birthday of the U.S. Marine Corps. On November 10, 1775, the Continental Congress passed a resolution in Philadelphia chartering “two Battalions of Marines” as landing forces for the U.S. Naval Fleet. The Navy and Marines went out of commission for 15 years after the Revolution but then Congress created a permanent U.S. Marine Corps in 1798.
The Marines staged some particularly dangerous and bloody repulses of German forces in 1918, and on November 11, 1918, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, World War I finally ended. It was billed as “The War to End All Wars,” although it didn’t work out that way, but November 11 became a memorable day for veterans, coinciding with the Marine Corps’ Birthday:
- On November 10, 1954, the Iwo Jima (Marine) Memorial was dedicated in Arlington, Virginia, and President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a bill that changed the name of Armistice Day to Veterans Day.
- On November 10, 1982, the Vietnam Veterans Memorial was dedicated in Washington, DC.
In another cause for celebration, 405 years ago, our nation was philosophically founded on what would later become Veterans Day. On November 11, 1620, the Mayflower set anchor in what is now Provincetown, at the tip of Cape Cod in Massachusetts. On that day, the Mayflower Compact was drafted and signed by 41 Pilgrims. This “Mayflower Compact” was later hailed as the origin of the uniquely American democratic institutions that evolved in English-speaking North America.
The Mayflower Compact pledged, in part, to “enact, constitute, and frame such just and equal laws, ordinances, acts, constitutions and offices, from time to time, as shall be thought most meet and convenient for the general good of the Colony, unto which we promise all due submission.”
Happy Birthday to America’s democratic philosophy and to the U.S. Marines, as well, a deep thank you to all Veterans.
We will be offering a special proof edition, U.S. Mint American Silver Eagle coin in December that features a privy mark on the obverse honoring the 250th birthday of the U.S. Marine Corps. Call your account representative about this unique offering that I believe will sell out quickly.
This week, the precious metals market suddenly recouped most of its previous price correction in late October. Silver is now well over $53 and gold has shot above $4,200 per ounce again. So far, in November, gold is up $137 (+3.4%) and silver is up 5.6%.
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