October 2025 - Week 5 Edition
The Gold (and Coin) Bull Market of 1976-80 Began in the Bicentennial Year (1976) – And America’s 250th Birthday Could Fuel a Similar Bonanza in Coins and Metals
Gold reached a low of barely $100 per ounce in September 1976, just after America’s 200th birthday and just before the election of Jimmy Carter, who defeated the incumbent, Gerald Ford. From that $103 base price, gold multiplied more than eightfold over the next 3.25 years, to $850 in January 1980. The historic Bicentennial rare coin bull market was directly related, in part, to this gold price surge and the Bicentennial and the CU3000 Index of rare coins had its greatest surge ever at 1,195 percent.
New designs for the Bicentennial coins in 1976 helped spur increased collector and investor interest and we expect next year’s 250th anniversary to likewise do the same in 2026 and beyond.
We must also consider the external economic factors that led to gold’s phenomenal eightfold rise – since they seem to be happening again, as we approach 2026. Those factors were: (1) President Carter’s “stagflation” – a new name for a slowly rising economy with high and rising inflation, (2) a huge decline in the U.S. dollar and (3) geopolitical tensions centered around the Soviet Union’s “Brezhnev Doctrine,” of establishing client states (countries dependent on a more powerful country for political, military or economic welfare and is often subordinate to that power) in each continent.
Today, we have (1) rising inflation, while the economy slows, (2) a dollar decline of 10% so far in 2025 and (3) geopolitical tensions, ranging from Russia’s war in Ukraine to China’s expanding “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) to control client states throughout the world.
Gold is now up well over 100-fold from its 1970 levels. This introduces many more gold buyers to the rare-gold-coin market, thereby increasing demand. Does this sound a lot like 1976 to you?
We have predicted that gold’s rise would cause a temporary price correction and we said this was our opportunity to “buy on the dips.” We have also pointed to the fundamentals behind use for $7,000 gold in 2026 and potentially over $10,000 an ounce by 2029, so now is the time to buy on dips!
Introducing Paul Hollis, a Coin Ally of Ours, to Head the U.S. Mint
Paul Hollis, 52, a fellow native-born Louisianian, like me, began collecting coins at a very young age (he was just 6), when a relative gave him a Peace Silver Dollar for his birthday. He went on to become involved in several numismatic affiliations as well as serving in the Louisiana State Legislature.
National Coin and Bullion Association (NCBA) Executive Director David Crenshaw said, “Paul Hollis has been a dedicated advocate of sound fiscal policy on behalf of collectors and investors throughout his career. We are thrilled to see him nominated for this important national role.”
Paul knows coins and he is an award-winning author, being recognized by the Numismatic Literary Guild (NLG) with the U.S. Coin Book of the Year award for his work, American Numismatist. He would later serve on the board of directors of the NLG.
“It’s an honor to have Paul Hollis nominated as the next U.S. Mint Director,” said Jerry Jordan, NLG executive director. “His work in numismatics and understanding what it takes for coin dealers to succeed in such a competitive market is a blessing for the entire numismatic hobby. Plus, this must be a dream come true for someone who cataloged his entire coin collection in his first book, written in 1980 when he was just seven years old.”
I also believe he is the ideal head of the U.S. Mint now, as we approach our nation’s 250th birthday – which is officially called a “semi-quincentennial,” a name I don’t care for … it literally means “half of 500.” I prefer an easier name to pronounce and remember – “America’s Quarter Millennium.”
Paul is also an excellent coin salesman, in that he knows the history and power of rare coins as an investment. The way to create lots of new coin investors is to help them start collecting any specialty products, often aligned with their state, like the “State Quarter” series of the late 1990s. Once they develop an interest in coins, they will likely move into collecting rarer and higher-priced historical coin series.
A new development in 2025 is that many investors have melted down some of their common-date gold coins – such as the beautiful $20 Liberty and the Saint Gauden’s Double Eagles – just because they can get slightly more money from the bullion content than from these elegantly designed Masterpieces.
I would never melt down a classic American coin – the thought chills me; such an act ignores all the history and romance of coin collecting and investing – but it is happening and this “Great Meltdown of 2025” will cause a shortage of common-date gold coins available on the market in the next few years.
As a result, when gold resumes its rise, we will not have as many common-date coins available, so investors will move up to the rarer available dates. This will help turn bullion investors into serious coin collectors, which should lift the prices of many of our gold rarities.
Gold is UP 4% in October – And So is Inflation
You wouldn’t know it by the headlines but gold is staging another very strong month as the end of October approaches. Gold is up $150 (+4%) so far in October! The fact that gold is off its peak price of around $4,300 is capturing the headlines but gold began October at a price just above $3,800. Now, it is above $3,950, so we’re actually up 20% from the start of August (at $3,293 an ounce) to the end of October, part of a powerful (+50%) year. In fact, this has been gold’s best year since 1979.
Silver is also up strongly – +29% since the start of August and +2% so far in October. However, silver’s dramatic rise (over 60% this year) is masked by its recent retreat from prices above $50 an ounce.
Another statistical surprise comes from the belated Consumer Price Index for September. The report was delivered one week later than scheduled, due to the government shutdown. Inflation is up 3% over the past 12 months. The Fed once set a target rate of 2% before cutting interest rates but they will likely cut rates another 0.25% this week, despite today’s 3% inflation rate. However, we must remember that 3% inflation doubles prices every 23 years in a gradual dollar devaluation.
These fundamentals back up our comparison of the 1976 Bicentennial to next year’s 250th bash for both the gold and rare coin markets!
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